Australia slightly revised down its resource and energy export revenue forecast today, as lower prices across a range of commodities and a stronger currency continue to pressure a key source of government revenue.
According to the quarterly official resources and energy menuurt, Australia is forecasting commodity export revenues to fall about 10% to A$372 billion ($256 billion) for the year ending June 30, 2025, down from the A$380 billion forecast made in June. Revenue reached A$415 billion last year.
This decline is expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, reaching A$354 billion.
The report notes that commodity prices fell due to slower economic growth in developed economies, the consequences of slower growth in developed economies, the consequences of higher interest rates, and weakness in China, a major source of demand for steel and other commodities.
Australia’s biggest export iron ore has been particularly hard hit by the slowdown in China’s property sector and its price has fallen by about a third this year.
The country expects iron ore export revenue to fall to A$99 billion in the year ending June 30, 2026 from A$138 billion last year.
Prices are lower across most of the resources covered in the report, including metals critical to the renewable energy transition such as nickel and lithium.
Lower prices driven by a surge in supply from Indonesia have forced some Australian nickel mines to close.
