The UK’s electricity and gas network operators are forecasting ample supplies for next winter with more imported electricity and domestic generation available than last year and high levels of gas storage in Europe.
The National Energy System Operator (NESO) and National Gas UK published their annual report on the supply and demand picture for the coming winter to help businesses and governments prepare.
Craig Dyke, NESO’s system operator director said the Electricity margin forecast for this winter is the highest since 2019/2020.
NESO reports that the de-rated margin, or excess electricity capacity over peak demand, for winter 2024/25 is expected to reach 5.2 GW (8.8% of peak demand), up from 4.4 GW (7.4%) in the previous season.
Although the last coal-fired power station in the UK has closed, this increase is driven by electricity interconnections with Europe, including a 1.4 GW network with Denmark, as well as increased generation and battery capacity.
Wholesale energy costs have reportedly stabilized since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered record-high prices in 2022. Nonetheless, NESO still warns that there is still a risk of geopolitical events that could impact the market.
NESO estimates a peak Electricity demand of 44.4 GW this winter, similar to the 44.9 GW peak seen last winter.
GAS SUPPLY
The UK reportedly uses gas for around a third of its electricity production, while 75% of the country’s homes are also heated with this fuel.
National Gas expects sufficient gas supplies for the winter, supported by supplies from Norway, LNG imports, and nearly full European gas storage. However, the company is monitoring tensions in the Middle East and other global factors that could affect supplies.
Household demand is expected to increase due to falling energy prices, while demand from power plants declines as renewable energy increases. Peak gas demand is estimated at 474 million cubic meters per day, with a peak supply capacity of 601 mcm/d.
